Capital improvement financial model

Does the capital plan pay for itself?

This page follows the Board's capital plan through each year: the up-front assessment and monthly capital dues coming in, $8.8M of projects going out, and the promise of no borrowing. It starts from an estimated 725 members, and every input below can be changed.

How to use this model

It opens on the Board's proposal, exactly as presented. Pick a scenario below, change the settings, or edit the project list, and every figure updates in real time. Use it to see what the member assessment would really need to be to accomplish the plan.

Try it: raise the assessment, change how many members leave, add a price increase or move a project to a different year, then watch the shortfall, the dues timeline and the roadmap change.

Scenario

Settings

Everything begins at the Board's figures and an estimated member count. Try changing any number below and watch the outcome update across the page.

10%

A 10% departure rate is the working estimate here, and it matches the Board's own stress test. Anyone who leaves pays no assessment and no capital dues.

What each tier pays
Up frontPer month Full Sports Social
Board's rates in use
Members
Total (estimated)725
Older members
How people pay
Prices & cash

Projects by Year

When each Board project is scheduled, what that year costs, and the fund balance afterward.

Adds a row to the project list below, ready to name, price and schedule.

Costs shown in today's dollars. "Cost this year" adds any price increase and overrun allowance from Settings. "Balance after" is the fund after that year's work.

Fund balance, end of each year

In the blackIn the red (borrowing)

Coming in and going out

Money inMoney out

Key observations

When do the monthly dues end?

At the Board's capital plan meeting, dues were described as continuing each month until the fund reaches $3M. The Board's own timeline is 7–9 years.

Carries the cash flow beyond Year 9 using only dues and interest, with no new projects. Routine replacements and the $1.8M already owed would delay the end further.

Annual ledger

Two paths, side by side

Both would repair the Club. Only one puts the cost, the work and the risk on members.

QuestionPath ASelf-funded capital planPath BConcert proposal
Investment$8.8M of projects, assuming the funding arrives.$10.7M in value: $5M of near-term improvements, $2M toward greens, $1.8M of debt paid off and roughly $2M of member obligations taken on.
Paid byMembers: presented as $15,800 per Full member over 9 years, nearer $25,400 if dues run until a $3M reserve (about 17 years).Concert
Current debtRemains. No payoff plan has been shown for the $1.8M.Paid off ($1.8M)
GreensUnfunded; the 2024 Master Plan prices them at $2.5M.$2M set aside for USGA-grade greens.
Monthly duesUp roughly 5% already, with capital dues added on top.Frozen for a year, then linked to CPI or similar local clubs.
Shortfall riskFalls on members. The fund dips as low as −$2.8M, pointing to a loan or another assessment.Falls on Concert
Future useProtected: 25-year deed restrictions recorded in York County.Protected by the same deed restrictions.
Decision-makingMember votes, including for projects above $250K.Advisory role for members; Concert makes the calls. This is the tradeoff.

Concert numbers come from the published proposal summary. The shortfall figure assumes the Board's settings and 10% leaving.

Where this leaves us

Control is worth something. It also costs something.

Two honest ways forward.

Option 1

Vote YES on a second vote.

Bring Concert back to the table.

Nothing gets signed now. A second vote reopens talks with Concert, and members decide again knowing the full numbers.

Option 2

Fund the Board's plan for real.

Set the assessment to match the work.

How to help1Vote YES on a second vote2Or ask the Board for a fully funded plan3Pass this along to members

Project list

Timing follows the Board's roadmap. Because the Board hasn't priced individual projects, known items come from the Club's 2025 long-range plan, while the clubhouse and kitchen split what's left of the $8.8M. Every row is editable.

Change projects

Edits here flow into Projects by Year.

Method & sources

Per-member cost, 9 years

Up-front assessment plus 108 monthly payments. At the Board's rates these equal its own totals of $15,800, $12,100 and $7,940. Try other rates in Settings.

Member estimate

TierApprox. count
Full~295
Junior Full~41
Sports~160
Social~191
Other~38
Total~725

Approximations based on the certified vote of May 2026. Junior Full and "Other" members pay the Full rate by default, which works in the Board's favor.

Method

  • Members who leave in Year 1 do so before the assessment is due, so they contribute nothing.
  • Split payers pay half up front and the remainder plus 8% a year later.
  • Monthly dues are collected for 108 months, starting in Year 1, from whoever remains.
  • Project costs rise by the annual price increase after Year 1 (the Board's estimates are in current dollars), and the overrun allowance is applied on top.
  • After Year 9, dues continue until the fund holds $3M. "Last year of dues" carries the cash flow forward with dues and interest only.
  • The Club's current $1.8M debt is left out; its payments would add to everything here.
  • Any balance below zero means borrowing of some kind, which the plan rules out, so loan interest is applied to it.

Questions for the Board

  • Where does the rest come from? With 10% leaving, assessment and dues don't reach $8.8M, and the early spending would still require a loan. What else is the Board relying on (operating profits, joining or transfer fees, cash already in reserve), and how much from each?
  • How does the transfer provision work? The Board says it covers the gap from 10% departures. Who pays, and how much?
  • What about the $1.8M already owed? No payoff is described, and it isn't modeled here. Members would carry it on top.
  • Where is the engineering study? The Board's deck cites "visible condition," with older estimates rolled forward.
  • Why are the greens left out? The 2024 Master Plan prices them at $2.5M, yet only "reserves" are set toward them.
  • Who pays for routine replacements? About $3.6M is listed for 2026–30. Does that come from operating money or from this capital fund?
  • What about the wish list? Outdoor dining, banquet and parking expansion are listed at $0 in the long-range plan.